China's Battle - Questions Remain

Will China as an offensive power be outbalanced by threatened nations? Japan, India, and Russia is known for mighty military powers. History have witnessed their military muscles at work. Will China be able to handle resistance? Will there be a pact to sink China's dream? Will US strengthen its position in Asia?

The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.

In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.

Of course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, in order to weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.Twenty years later, although India will lag behind more compared to China in military power, yet it is still one of the few world powers. If China uses military force to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.

The second best plan is to export advanced weapons to Pakistan, helping Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir region in 2035 and to achieve its unification. While India and Pakistan are busy fighting against each other, China should take a Blitz to conquer Southern Tibet, at the time occupied by India.

India will not be able to fight a two front war, and is deemed to lose both. China can retake Southern Tibet easily, while Pakistan can control the whole Kashmir. If this plan cannot be adopted, the worst case is direct military action to take back Southern Tibet.

After the first two wars, China has rested for around ten years, and has become a world power both in terms of military and economy. There will only be the U.S. and Europe (on the condition that it becomes a united country. If not, this will be replaced by Russia. But from my point of view, European integration is quite probable) able to cope with China in the top three list in world power.

After taking back Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China has great leap forward in its military power in army, navy, air force and space warfare. China will be on the leading role in its military power, may be only second to the U.S. Therefore, India will lose this war.

Gripen Heads to Brazil - Who's Next?

Brazil's sudden decision a month ago to pick the Saab Gripen ahead of American and French contenders is the first arrangement of its size that has been carried out without accounting superpowers or United Nations Security Council. 

The arrangement has expanded the much awaited access for South African defence and other defence industry players, especially among BRICS nations (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa). 

With the Gripen in Brazil, the entire BRICS pact has become additionally exciting.

A US defence investigator says, despite the fact that the NSA outrage — the US' eavesdropping on Brazil's president Dilma Rousseff — proved to be useful as a "method of reasoning for criticising the US" and encouraged the selection of the Gripen rather than the Boeing F/A-18E/F Super Hornet, it was not the primary driver. 

It is said that the behavioural change was that Brazil settled on a sensible decision and at last ran with what the Brazilian armed forces had said for a considerable length of time it needed and required: the Gripen, the cheapest option.

The latest addition into Gripen’s potential buyer is Indonesia and there is even talk that India is eyeing onto the Gripen, due to negotiation halt on the purchase of Dassault Rafale.

French based Dassault was said as not wanting to bear any responsibility for locally assembled Rafale, amounting to 108 out of the total possible orders, 126. The situation has given some space for BRICS to play its role in placing Saab’s Sea Gripen as a stronger contender for both Brazil and India, according to a source.

Analysts are optimistic that the Brazil-Gripen purchase will be Sweden’s largest export contract so far. Therefore, observing the situation in a larger picture, it can be said that superpowers are no longer able to influence international arms deal and BRICS, despite news on its downfall, is gaining powers and influence, possibly affecting global defence course in the next years to come.