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Monday 24 February 2014

Ground Combat Vehicle Programme: Issues and Possible Alternatives

The shocking discontinuation of US Army Ground Combat Vehicle (GCV) programme January this year has overwhelmed related defence contractors with cold atmosphere. Defence industry giants namely BAE Systems, Northrop Grumman, General Dynamics, Lockheed Martin, Raytheon and Tognum America were all in full throttle when the undesirable news emerged. While the army is forecasting the need for better mobility solution for a nine-member infantry squad, the US government however slashed 83% of the requested $592 million, leaving the army with only $100 million of total fund for the programme’s research and development.
According to Chief of Staff of the US Army Gen Ray Odierno, the Army is definitely in need of a new infantry-fighting vehicle (IFV) but due to the economy downturn, could not afford to develop one. Odierno added that the hope now is that the remaining fund will provide the Army with sufficient capital to develop all required technologies so that in years ahead when the programme is revived, things will get back on track to replace their ageing Bradley.

Emphasising on full nine-member squad mobility

Infantry squads of the US Army consist of nine men – a squad leader and two four-men fire-teams. These people rely on IFVs as their main transportation during battle. As a primary weapon and a means of transport for infantry squads, the Army perceives the IFV as one of its most important asset in battle theatres. The issue regarding the battle-worn Bradley is its lack of space, with the capability to transport only seven soldiers thus necessitating a squad to be divided among vehicles. This separation issue, according to strategic studies, has all this while put these squads in a state of total vulnerability because of the difficulties in communication as well as organisation.
The lack of space does not only prevent a full-sized squad to move in unity, but also disables a squad to take along the often-needed additional soldiers which may include radio-operators, medics or forward observers. The Army is striving to tackle this issue hence the introduction of the GCV platform. 

Overcoming the challenges

Findings and results of more recent war games have highlighted the need for rapid deployment in small formations. The Army is anticipating a more expeditionary type of operations in the near future. Through war games and recent international operations, they learnt that every deployment has to be fast and to be effectively mobile, having to move with minimal but optimal equipments and supports. The Army too believes that future operations will tend to take place in remote areas. Therefore, it is believed that the development of a more rugged and mobile IFV or GCV will greatly contribute in the service’s future deployments.
Though GCV programme’s revival is possible, the Congress through its Congressional Budget Office (CBO) report had earlier outlined some issues regarding the GCV itself. A contrasting fact is that while the Army is striving for all-terrain mobility, the GCV platform turns out to be way heavier than the Army’s current Bradley IFV. While the ageing Bradley weighs no more than 39 tonnes, the GCV however weighs approximately 50 to 65 tonnes. Though this excessive weight came as a result of heavier and stronger armoury, this huge excess weight somehow will affect the GCV’s logistic ability and mobility in and into battle theatres. Weighing at 65 tonnes each, rapid deployment seems impossible. The C-17 is able to transport three Bradleys at a single time but flying three GCVs in a single flight is far beyond reality. Logistic cost is more than likely to skyrocket. This has become a major drawback during its valuation stage, which later brought to the programme’s dead end.
In addition to that, the GCV programme too has faced several technical challenges which may impact its performance later down the road. One issue that comes into question is the vehicle’s ability to protect its passengers without having to overload itself with heavier armour. Materials such as ceramic and other lightweight armour are either too expensive or not suitable for the GCV; they require more time for development. Another alternative is the utilisation of active-protection systems - this kind of technology is not fully developed too. Without being able to overcome these issues, developers may need to settle down with the more conventional armour that brings to a concrete conclusion; more weight and higher fuel consumption and therefore higher operating cost.
Budgetary issue has and will always become a major concern from any government’s point of view. In an effort to contain the programme within its target cost, the Army had to allow some capability trade-offs. Unlike the Bradley, GCV had to give up anti-tank missile launcher. To make things worst, the Army too had settled down without the armour kits that was supposed to protect two-third of the vehicle, smaller and less powerful 25mm cannon instead of the 30mm earlier planned and a set of less sophisticated sensors and optical equipments.

Forking out alternatives

The CBO, post evaluation process suggested a number of alternatives. First alternative is to purchase the German Puma IFV. As one of the strongest option, Puma too lacks on certain features. Another alternative suggested by the CBO is the Israeli Namer APC. The Namer however has an issue regarding firepower. Third suggestion is to upgrade the US Army current fleets of Bradleys to lengthen its service life for years to come. The last and the least favoured option, which now has become reality is to kill the GCV programme, retaining the current Bradley while at the same time running a research for its life-extension programme.
While this article focuses on the US Army GCV programme, ADJ also brings you about a number of IFVs of similar class, which we believe share some distinct features; especially with six or more seating configuration. We will examine each IFV’s survivability (armoury), lethality (weaponry), mobility (engine capacity) as well as maximum number of passengers. The proposed alternatives include other IFVs namely the Puma, Namer, Turkish Tulpar, Bradley and its upgrade programme as well as a few others.

M2 Bradley

First we look at the Bradley IFV, which the Army initially opted to phase out due to its ageing issue as well as a part of future capabilities development process. First entered service in 1981, the Bradley IFV variant was manufactured under the Bradley family of fighting vehicles by BAE Systems Land and Armaments, back then known as United Defense. 
The Bradley weigh falls between 35 to 41 tonnes, depending on armour kits equipped on each vehicle. It is armed with a Bushmaster M242 25mm chain gun as its primary weapon, a 7.62mm machine gun as its secondary firepower as well as a missile launcher for TOW anti-tank missiles. The IFV is powered by a Cummins VTA-903T diesel engine, capable of producing 600hp. Power to weight ratio is rated at 19.7hp/tonne. Therefore, despite its relatively vintage-age, it is no surprise that the Bradley is able to reach a top speed of 66km/h.
Under the GCV programme, the upgrades of US Army current Bradley fleets are considered as one of the cheapest alternatives for the US government. However, this alternative has become an issue due to the Army’s main objective to acquire a nine-seater IFV. It is worth mentioning that under the upgrade programme, the ageing Bradley may possibly undergo quite a few modernisation initiatives including more powerful engine, better sets of suspension, additional armour, advanced optics and an additional 7.62mm machine gun.
Under the government estimation, in order to upgrade and field all Bradley, a sum of $19.5 billion of fund will be required beginning 2014 until 2030. Out of the $19.5 billion, $2.7 billion will have to be allocated over integration process while the rest goes for units purchase, amounting to 1748 in total numbers with a price tag of $9.6 million each.

Schützenpanzer Puma

Development of the Puma IFV began in the 90s as a replacement plan of the German’s ageing Marder vehicle. The development process took place between Rheinmetall Landsysteme and Krauss-Maffei Wegmann (KMW). Production started circa 2008 and the German Army received its first Puma in the same year. In term of lethality, the Puma is equipped with a dual-fed Rheinmetall Mauser 30mm cannon as its primary weapon and a 5.56mm HK MG4 machine gun as its secondary. In addition to that, unlike the proposed GCV that eliminates anti-tank missile, the Puma rolls out of factory readily equipped with a launcher for Spike anti-tank missile. It is powered by an MTU 892 turbocharged diesel engine, developing a huge 1073 horsepower with a maximum speed of 70km/h.
The Puma is proposed with a 12-tonne armour kits package, which gives the IFV a total weight of 43 tonnes when fully armoured. Meanwhile, its underbelly is protected against mines and IED threats. At 31.5 tonnes in its basic armour package, the Puma is readily fitted with floating seats for six passengers excluding its crew of three. As an alternative of the GCV, the lack of seat numbers has however become an issue since the US Army is eyeing on a nine-seater solution.
At $6.9 million each, the Puma is one of the cheapest options for the US Army IFV replacement programme. Despite of its lack of passenger seats, the Puma under the CBO evaluation turns out to be the most lethal and possesses higher survivability due to its 450mm-high ground clearance. Moreover, since the Puma is already in production, the US government estimated that integration process will only cost approximately $500 million and they also estimated that the procurement of Puma would cost a total of $14 billion less than the GCV programme’s target cost.

Namer

Born out of the Israel-Lebanon conflict, the Namer, or earlier named Nammera is an armoured-personnel carrier (APC) manufactured by Israeli Ordnance Corps. Designed and developed for the Israeli Defence Force, Namer carries the DNA of its predecessor, the legendary Merkava tank. It was built bottom-up based on Merkava tank chassis hence the large size. Post Israel-Lebanon conflict has saw Israel Defence Force insisted on a new armoured-vehicle to be fielded after the old M113 was proven vulnerable to explosive type of threats. It was in 2008 when the Namer first entered service and production numbers today has reached a total of 200 units.
Compared to Bradley and Puma, the Namer weighs a whooping 60 tonnes, making it the heaviest option among the GCV alternatives. However, it is important to stress that the excess weight comes from a package of strong armour kits, which were made of classified composite matrix of laminated ceramic-nickel-steel-alloy and underlaid reactive armour. The Namer too, thanks to its large build-up is able to fulfil the Army’s demand of a nine-seater IFV.
Despite the advantages of stronger armour and larger interior capacity, the Namer too possesses some disadvantages, which are seen as major drawbacks. In comparison with the Puma and Bradley, Namer is left behind in term of firepower capability. It is only equipped with a 12.7mm heavy machine gun and a 7.62mm machine gun as its secondary weapon. Though it is armed with mortar and smoke grenade dischargers, the Namer is in a position where its defensive capability greatly outweighs its offensive capability. Its lack of offensive power puts the Namer as the weakest alternative under the CBO evaluation. However, bear in mind that the Namer was designed as an APC not as IFV hence the lack in firepower.
Tagged at $11 million each, procurement of the Namer will cost the US government an estimated figure of $19.5 billion – $9 billion less of that the GCV programme. Development and integration process would take up only $300 million while the rest of the $19.5 billion goes to the procurement of 1748 Namer vehicles.

Tulpar

Apart from the suggested alternatives of the GCV programme, it is worth to mention a few other IFVs that have similar capabilities that put them altogether into a similar class. To name one is the Tulpar IFV by Otokar. This Turkish latest and most advanced IFV was designed for the Turkish Armed Forces, unveiled during IDEF exhibition held last year. According to Otokar, the Tulpar will comprise a number of variants including reconnaissance, command-and-control, personnel carrier, mortar, recovery, launch rocket system, air defence, ambulance and anti-tank vehicles. Though available in arrays of variants, this article however brings you about the Tulpar in its IFV variant.
Comparable to the Puma, the Tulpar too is designed with a high ground clearance of 450mm for better protection against mines and IED threats. Looking at its firepower, Tulpar IFV operates with Mizrak 30 unmanned turret, armed with a 30mm dual-fed cannon, L-Umtas anti-tank missile launcher as well as a 7.62mm Browning machine gun as its secondary weapon system. In term of survivability, the Tulpar IFV is offered with three armour packages. Depending on its armour packages, the Tulpar will weigh somewhere between 25 to 40 tonnes.
At the heart of the IFV is a Scania DSI 14/16 diesel engine. Known for its durability and reliability, Scania as one of the biggest European diesel engine manufacturer helps to generate 810hp under the hood, allowing the Tulpar to reach a top speed of 70km/h and a maximum range of 600km. Moreover, this IFV is able to carry nine fully-equipped soldiers, making it a suitable contender under the GCV programme alternatives. Though the price tag is yet to be disclosed, Tulpar, under the IFV flag is a strong contender for armed forces all over the world in search of a capable and reliable IFV.

Anders


Anders history began in 2008 when it first went into development stage following the Polish Army’s demand for a new IFV to replace its Soviet-era BMP-1 IFV. OBRUM was responsible for the development and manufacturing process of the Anders until its first prototype was made public in 2010. Named after a WWII general, Anders’ weigh ranges from 25 to 35 tonnes. Its protection package consists of a set of modular armour, providing all-around shield against 7.62mm rounds. In addition to that, optional add-on armoury may provide further protection up against 25mm projectiles.
In order to enhance its offensive power, the Anders IFV is equipped with OTO Melara’s Hitfist-30P turret, along a 30-mm cannon while its secondary weapon is a 7.62mm machine gun. Anders spacious interior is able to hold three crew and eight additional soldiers. Powering the IFV is a German-made MTU turbocharged diesel engine, which is capable of generating 720hp. Thanks to its reasonable weight, the Anders may reach a top speed of 72km/h and able to reach a destination as far as 600km. Price announcement is yet to be done, but the Polish Army has expressed an interest to purchase 1000 units of similar vehicle.













Tuesday 18 February 2014

Singapore Airshow 2014

Singapore Airshow 2014 attracted close to 100,000 visitors over the public day weekend on 15 and 16 February. In addition to the 80,000 public day tickets that were completely sold out, the Airshow also welcomed guests for the Republic of Singapore Air Force’s 45th anniversary celebrations at Singapore Airshow, exhibiting personnel, student groups and concession ticket holders over the two days.

Visitors to the Airshow were treated to an impressive line-up of public day activities, including the highly-anticipated flying display, featuring the largest number of aerobatic teams in the history of Singapore Airshow. The line-up included awe-inspiring team aerobatics performances by the Republic of Singapore Air Force (RSAF) Black Knights, the Republic of Korea Air Force (ROKAF) Black Eagles and the Indonesian Air Force (TNI-AU) The Jupiters.  There were also solo aerobatic performances by the U.S. Air Force, the U.S. Marine Corps and the Royal Australian Air Force (RAAF). The RSAF pavilion, part of the RSAF’s efforts to celebrate its 45th anniversary with the public at Singapore Airshow 2014, was also a major highlight of the public days.

The new public day arrangements introduced this year by show organisers, where visitors go through security clearance at Singapore Expo before boarding the shuttle bus to Changi Exhibition Centre, were well-received. In particular, the objective of getting visitors into the show swiftly and safely during the peak period in the morning before the flying display was achieved.

Over the six-day show from 11-16 February, Singapore Airshow 2014 welcomed some 146,000 visitors in total. Visitorship over the four trade days from 11-14 February stood at almost 46,000 visitors from 129 countries/regions, with 31% coming from overseas. Singapore Airshow 2014 also played host to 279 delegations from 72 countries.

Enjoy the photos!

RSAF F-15SG
JSF were present. Only the mock-up though.
Osprey during a flying display.
Malaysian EC725 were present throughout the show.
C295 after a 40-hour journey from Portugal.
Back to the static display area after the flying display.
Globemaster right after touchdown. Being towed into the static display area.
SAS14 caters mostly for commercial aviation with a considerably large proportion for defence sector.
Happy crew after a tiring day.
Writer having a taste of Apache's cockpit.
Chinook's arse was opened to public.
Crew on standby.
ROKAF Black Eagles during an aerobatic display. 

Saturday 1 February 2014

China's Battle - Questions Remain

Will China as an offensive power be outbalanced by threatened nations? Japan, India, and Russia is known for mighty military powers. History have witnessed their military muscles at work. Will China be able to handle resistance? Will there be a pact to sink China's dream? Will US strengthen its position in Asia?

The 6th War: Taking back of lands lost to Russia (Year 2055 to 2060)

The current Sino-Russian relationship seems to be a good one, which is actually a result of no better choice facing the U.S. In reality, the two countries are meticulously monitoring the each other. Russia fears the rise of China threaten its power; while China never forgets the lands lost to Russia. When the chance comes, China will take back the lands lost.

In the days of “Old China”, Russia has occupied around one hundred and sixty million square kilometre of lands, equivalent to one-sixth of the landmass of current domain of China. Russia is therefore the bitter enemy of China. After the victories of previous five wars, it is the time to make Russians pay their price.After the victories of the previous five wars by 2050, China will make territorial claims based on the domain of Qing Dynasty (similar way by making use of the domain of the Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia) and to make propaganda campaigns favoring such claims. Efforts should also be made to disintegrate Russia again.
There must be a war with Russia. Though at that time, China has become an advanced power in navy, army, air and space forces, it is nevertheless the first war against a nuclear power. Therefore, China should be well prepared in nuclear weapons, such as the nuclear power to strike Russia from the front stage to the end. When the Chinese army deprives the Russians’ ability to counter strike, they will come to realize that they can no longer match China in the battlefield. They can do nothing but to hand over their occupied lands and to pay a heavy price to their invasions.

The 5th War: Unification of Outer Mongolia (Year 2045 to 2050)

Though there are advocates for reunification of Outer Mongolia at the moment, is this idea realistic? Those unrealistic guys in China are just fooling themselves and making a mistake in strategic thinking. This is just no good to the great work of unification of Outer Mongolia.
We also need to know that the People’s Republic of China recognizes the independence of Outer Mongolia. Using the constitution and domain of the People’s Republic of China to unify Outer Mongolia is naked aggression. We can only have legitimate cause to military action using the constitution and domain of the Republic of China. What’s more, it is the case after Taiwan being taken over by China. So isn’t it meaningless to argue which entity being unified?). China should raise the issue of unification with Outer Mongolia, and to take propaganda campaigns inside Outer Mongolia. China should also pick the groups advocating the unification, aiding them to take over key posts in their government, and to proclaim Outer Mongolia as the core interests of China upon the settlement of Southern Tibet issue by 2040.After taking Taiwan, we should base our territorial claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China (some people may raise a question here: why should we base our claims on the constitution and domain of the Republic of China? In such case, isn’t the People’s Republic of China being annexed by the Republic of China? This is a total bullshit. I will say: the People’s Republic of China is China; the Republic of China is China too. As a Chinese, I only believe that unification means power. The way which can protect the Chinese best from foreign aggression is the best way to the Chinese people.
If Outer Mongolia can return to China peacefully, it is the best result of course; but if China meets foreign intervention or resistance, China should be prepared to take military action. Taiwan model can be useful in this case: giving an ultimatum with deadline in the Year 2045. Let Outer Mongolia to consider the case for few years. If they refuse the offer, then military action takes off.
In this moment, the previous four wars have been settled. China has the political, military and diplomatic power to unify Outer Mongolia. The weakened U.S. and Russia dare not to get involved except diplomatic protests; Europe will take a vague role; while India, Africa and Central Asian countries will remain silent. China can dominate Outer Mongolia within three years’ time. After the unification, China will place heavy troops on frontier to monitor Russia. China will take ten years to build up elemental and military infrastructure to prepare for the claim of territorial loss from Russia.

The 4th War: “Reconquest” of Diaoyu Island [Senkaku] and Ryukyu Islands (Year 2040 to 2045)

In the mid-21st century, China emerges as the real world power, accompanied with the decline of Japan and Russia, stagnant U.S. and India and the rise of Central Europe. That will be the best time for China to take back Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands. The map below is the contrast between ancient and recent Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands (map omitted).
What a shame for such ignorance! From the historical records of Chinese, Ryukyu and other countries (including Japan), Ryukyu has long been the vassal states of China since ancient times, which means the islands are the lands of China. In this case, is the “middle line” set by Japan in the East China Sea justified? Does Japan have anything to do with the East China Sea? (Those who have no idea in these details may refer to “Ryukyu: An indispensable part of China since the ancient times” written by me)Many people may know that Diaoyu Island is the land of China since the ancient times, but have no idea that the Japanese annexed Ryukyu Island (currently named as Okinawa, with U.S. military base). The society and the government of China is misled by the Japanese while they are discussing on the issues of the East China Sea, such as the “middle-line” set by the Japanese or “Okinawa issue” (Ryukyu Islands in Chinese), by coming to think that Ryukyu Islands are the ancient lands of Japan.
The Japanese has robbed our wealth and resources in the East China Sea and unlawfully occupied Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands for many years, the time will come that they have to pay back. At that time, we can expect that the U.S. will be willing to intervene but has weakened; Europe will keep silent; Russia will sit and watch the fight. The war can end within half of a year with overwhelming victory of China. Japan will have no choice but to return Diaoyu Island and Ryukyu Islands to China. East China Sea becomes the inner lake of China. Who dare to put a finger on it?

The 3rd War: “Reconquest” of Southern Tibet (Year 2035 to 2040)

China and India share a long border, but the only sparking point of conflicts between the two countries is only the part of Southern Tibet. China has long been the imaginary enemy of India. The military objective of India is to surpass China. India aims to achieve this by self-development and importing advanced military technologies and weapons from the U.S, Russia and Europe, chasing closely to China in its economic and military development.
In India, the official and media attitude is more friendly towards the U.S, Russia and Europe, and is repellent or even hostile against China. This leads to unresolvable conflicts with China. On the other hand, India values itself highly with the aids from the U.S, Russia and Europe, thinking it can beat China in wars. This is also the reason of long lasting land disputes.
Of course, such plan may fail. But China should at least try its best to incite Assam province and once conquered Sikkim to gain independence, in order to weaken the power of India. This is the best strategy.Twenty years later, although India will lag behind more compared to China in military power, yet it is still one of the few world powers. If China uses military force to conquer Southern Tibet, it has to bear some losses. In my opinion, the best strategy for China is to incite the disintegration of India. By dividing into several countries, India will have no power to cope with China.
The second best plan is to export advanced weapons to Pakistan, helping Pakistan to conquer Southern Kashmir region in 2035 and to achieve its unification. While India and Pakistan are busy fighting against each other, China should take a Blitz to conquer Southern Tibet, at the time occupied by India.
India will not be able to fight a two front war, and is deemed to lose both. China can retake Southern Tibet easily, while Pakistan can control the whole Kashmir. If this plan cannot be adopted, the worst case is direct military action to take back Southern Tibet.
After the first two wars, China has rested for around ten years, and has become a world power both in terms of military and economy. There will only be the U.S. and Europe (on the condition that it becomes a united country. If not, this will be replaced by Russia. But from my point of view, European integration is quite probable) able to cope with China in the top three list in world power.
After taking back Taiwan and Spratly Islands, China has great leap forward in its military power in army, navy, air force and space warfare. China will be on the leading role in its military power, may be only second to the U.S. Therefore, India will lose this war.

The 2nd War: “Reconquest” of Spratly Islands (Year 2025 to 2030)

After unification of Taiwan, China will take a rest for two years. During the period of recovery, China will send the ultimatum to countries surrounding the Islands with the deadline of 2028. The countries having disputes on the sovereignty of Islands can negotiate with China on preserving their shares of investments in these Islands by giving up their territorial claims. If not, once China declares war on them, their investments and economic benefits will be taken over by China.
Besides, the U.S. will not just sit and watch China “reconquesting” the Islands. In the 1stwar mentioned above, the U.S. may be too late to join the war, or simply unable to stop China from reunifying Taiwan. This should be enough to teach the U.S. a lesson not to confront too openly with China. Still, the U.S. will aid those South East Asian countries, such as Vietnam and the Philippines, under the table. Among the countries surrounding the South China Sea, only Vietnam and the Philippines dare to challenge China’s domination. Still, they will think twice before going into war with China, unless they fail on the negotiation table, and are sure they can gain military support from the U.S.At this moment, the South East Asian countries are already shivering with Chinese military unification of Taiwan. On one hand, they will be sitting by the negotiation table, yet they are reluctant to give up their interests in the Islands. Therefore, they will be taking the wait-and-see attitude and keep delaying to make final decision. They will not decide whether to make peace or go into war until China takes any firm actions. The map below shows the situation of territorial claims over the Spratly Islands. (Map omitted)
The best option for China is to attack Vietnam, since Vietnam is the most powerful country in the region. Beating Vietnam can intimidate the rest. While the war with Vietnam goes on, other countries will not move. If Vietnam loses, others will hand their islands back to China. If the opposite, they will declare war on China.
Of course, China will beat Vietnam and take over all the islands. When Vietnam loses the war and its islands, others countries, intimidated by Chinese military power, yet still with greediness to keep their interests, will negotiate with China, returning the islands and declaring allegiance to China. So China can build the ports and place troops on these islands, extending its influence into the Pacific Ocean.
Up till now, China has made a thorough breakthrough of the First Island Chain and infiltrated the Second one, Chinese aircraft carrier can have free access into the Pacific Ocean, safeguarding its own interests.

The Six Wars China Is Sure To Fight In the Coming 50 Years

China is not yet a unified great power. This is a humiliation to the Chinese people, a shame to the children of the Yellow Emperor. For the sake of national unification and dignity, China has to fight six wars in the coming fifty years. Some are regional wars; the others may be total wars. No matter what is the nature, each one of them is inevitable for Chinese unification.

The 1st War: Unification of Taiwan (Year 2020 to 2025)

Though we are enjoying peace on the two sides of the Taiwan Strait, we should not daydream a resolution of peaceful unification from Taiwan administration (no matter it is Chinese Nationalist Party or Democratic Progressive Party). Peaceful unification does not fit their interests while running for elections. Their stance is therefore to keep to status quo (which is favourable to the both parties, each of them can get more bargaining chips) For Taiwan, “independence” is just a mouth talk than a formal declaration, while “unification” is just an issue for negotiation than for real action. The current situation of Taiwan is the source of anxiety to China, since everyone can take the chance to bargain more from China.
From the analysis of the current situation, Taiwan is expected to be defiant towards unification, so military action will be the only solution. This war of unification will be the first war under the sense of modern warfare since the establishment of the “New China”. This war will be a test to the development of the People’s Liberation Army in modern warfare. China may win this war easily, or it may turn out to be a difficult one. All depend on the level of intervention of the U.S. and Japan. If the U.S. and Japan play active roles in aiding Taiwan, or even make offensives into Chinese mainland, the war must become a difficult and prolonged total war. On the other hand, if the U.S. and Japan just watch and see, the Chinese army can easily defeat the Taiwanese. In this case, Taiwan can be under control within three months. Even if the U.S. and Japan step in in this stage, the war can be finished within six months.China must work out a strategy to unify Taiwan within the next ten years, that is, by 2020. By then, China will have to send an ultimatum to Taiwan, demanding the Taiwanese to choose the resolution of peaceful unification (the most preferred epilogue for the Chinese) or war (an option forced to be so) by 2025. For the purpose of unification, China has to make preparation three to five years earlier. So when the time comes, the Chinese government must act on either option, to give a final answer to the problem.